Mortality close to pre-pandemic level, says CMI

8 February 2022

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its听. Today鈥檚 update covers week 4 of 2022 (22 to 28 January), based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 8 February 2022.

The key points of this update are:听听听听听

The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in week 4 of 2022 was 100 higher than if mortality rates had been the same as in week 4 of 2019; equivalent to 1% more deaths than expected.
There have been around 121,700 more deaths from all causes than expected in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 28 January 2022. Of these, 1,300 have occurred in 2022.
The number of deaths in England & Wales with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate was 1,385 in week 4 of 2022.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said:

鈥淲e have now seen 30 consecutive weeks of excess mortality in the UK, the longest run of excess mortality during the pandemic.

In the second half of 2021, the number of excess deaths was similar to the number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate. However, the picture is very different in weeks 2 to 4 of 2022 鈥� with nearly 5,000 mentions of COVID-19 on UK death certificates, but fewer than 400 excess deaths. This shows that while COVID has contributed to a significant number of deaths, overall mortality is similar to the pre-pandemic level for the time of year.鈥�

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the听.

~ENDS~

Notes to editors

We define 鈥渆xcess鈥� deaths as the difference between actual deaths in a week, and those that we would have expected if mortality rates had been the same as in the corresponding week of 2019. We use 2019 as the most recent 鈥渘ormal鈥� year of mortality observed, as mortality in the first 12 weeks of 2019 and 2020 were similar.
For the purposes of the mortality monitor, the CMI treats the pandemic as being deaths registered from week 10 of 2020 onwards (i.e. from 29 February 2020).
The CMI publishes three types of mortality monitor:
- A weekly 鈥渟ummary鈥� pandemic monitor, without a press release. The next is planned for week 5 of 2022 on Tuesday 15 February 2022.
- A more detailed pandemic monitor, with a press release, every four or five weeks. The next is planned for week 8 of 2022 on Tuesday 8 March 2022.
- A quarterly monitor, in a format that pre-dates the pandemic. The next is planned for week 13 of 2022 on Tuesday 12 April 2022.

Contact
Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email:听sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (鈥榯he CMI鈥�) is wholly owned by the 羞羞视频 but has an independent executive and management.

The CMI鈥檚 mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

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Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial.听 As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest.听

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