CMI says 2022 had the worst second half for mortality since 2010

17 January 2023

In light of the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its . Today鈥檚 updates cover week 1 of 2023 (to 6 January), based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 17 January 2023. This enables us to analyse mortality for the whole of 2022.

The key points of these updates are:

Mortality for 2022 as a whole was 4.5% higher than 2019, but 7.8% lower than in 2020 and 2.2% lower than in 2021.
There is a striking difference in how mortality rates in 2022 compare to 2019 at different ages 鈥� ranging from 2.5% higher for ages 75-84 to 7.8% higher for ages 20-44.
In the UK, there have been around 155,300 more deaths from all causes than expected from the start of the pandemic to 6 January 2023. Of these, 72,900 occurred in 2020, 47,500 in 2021, and 31,000 in 2022.
In the UK, the second half of 2022 had 26,300 excess deaths, compared to 4,700 in the first half of 2022.

Deaths registered in week 1 of 2023 are affected by public holidays, when register offices are typically closed and some registrations will be delayed. Figures for this week are not directly comparable to other weeks:

The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in week 1 of 2023 was 3,437 higher than if mortality rates had been the same as in week 1 of 2019; equivalent to 30% more deaths than expected.
The number of deaths registered in England & Wales with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate was 739 in week 1 of 2023.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: 鈥淎lthough weekly excess mortality in the second half of 2022 wasn鈥檛 nearly as high as the peaks earlier in the pandemic, it was persistent. This led to more excess deaths in the second half of 2022 than in the second half of any year since 2010.

鈥淓xcess mortality has been particularly high recently with more than 7,000 excess deaths over the three weeks to 6 January 2023.鈥�

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the .

~ENDS~

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Notes to editors

We define 鈥渆xcess鈥� deaths as the difference between actual deaths in a week, and those that we would have expected if mortality rates had been the same as in the corresponding week of 2019. We use 2019 as the most recent 鈥渘ormal鈥� year of mortality observed, as mortality in the first 12 weeks of 2019 and 2020 were similar.
For the purposes of the mortality monitor, the CMI treats the pandemic as being deaths registered from week 10 of 2020 onwards (i.e. from 29 February 2020).

The CMI publishes mortality monitors regularly:

Each week we publish a summary monitor, without a press release. The next is planned for week 2 of 2023 on Tuesday 24 January 2023.
Each quarter we publish more detail, accompanied by a press release. The next is planned for week 13 of 2023, in April 2023.

Contact

Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (鈥榯he CMI鈥�) is wholly owned by the 羞羞视频 but has an independent executive and management.

The CMI鈥檚 mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

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Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial. As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest.

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