ÐßÐßÊÓƵ

Vines are a kind of graphical model, which can help to identify and organise relationships between variables in high-dimension stochastic modelling. Vines were initially developed in the late 1990s and could be used in insurance to:

• provide more nuance for dependency modelling, compared to the use of multivariate copulas
• aid discussions about dependence assumptions with non-technical audiences
• provide simpler methods of completing incomplete correlation matrices
• provide methods for combining multiple sets of pre-simulated data

Actuaries are relied upon to ensure that the methods they use are up to date and relevant to the problems at hand. It is therefore important that the industry keeps up to date with updates in statistical research and best practice. Vine copulas have been used for over 20 years and should be part of the problem solving toolkit for actuaries.

Some of our research questions are:

• To what extent can existing dependence structures in capital models be interpreted as vines, and what benefits arise from this reinterpretation?
• Can the use of vine copulas aid with expert judgement elicitation for modelling dependencies?
• Can so called ‘aggregation trees’ be interpreted in a vine copula context?
• How best to specify a factor-based dependence model using a vine copula?

About

Chair: Paul Hewson and Tim Harrison
Established: 2024

The UK Asbestos Working Party investigates asbestos related claims based on UK market data, investigates trends and reacts accordingly.

The objectives of the UK Asbestos Working Party are to:

• collect UK insurance market data on a yearly basis for UK asbestos-related claims
• collect data relating to UK asbestos-related diseases, such as from the CRU, etc.
• compare trends in survey data against the AWP’s market estimates and react accordingly
• maintain contact with key individuals and organisations such as the HSE, Prof. Peto, etc.
• understand and respond to legal and/or industry developments affecting asbestos-related claims in the UK
• if a new market estimate is required to develop and make available, a population/insurance claim projection models for UK asbestos-related claims.

UK Asbestos Working Party Data Request

The UK Asbestos Working Party periodically carries out market surveys of insurance company UK-asbestos-related claims in order that they can estimate the future cost of UK asbestos-related claims to the insurance industry.

Download the UK asbestos market survey to year-end 2024 (XLSX, 130 KB)

Models and spreadsheets

• Aggregated market data (as at year-end 2022) (XLSX, 160 KB)
• Aggregated market data (as at year-end 2021) (XLSX, 195 KB)
• Models used in 2021 Paper for market estimates (ZIP, 12 MB)
  
• Aggregated market data (as at year-end 2020) (XLSX, 150 KB)
  
• Aggregated market data (as at year-end 2019) (XLSX, 133 KB)
  
• Aggregated market data for years 1999 to 2018 (as at year-end 2018) (XLSX, 145 KB)
  
• Aggregated market data for years 1998 to 2017 (as at year-end 2017) (XLSX, 135 KB)
  
• Aggregated market data for years 1997 to 2016 (as at year-end 2016) (XLSX, 301 KB)
  
• Aggregated market data for years 1996 to 2015 (as at year-end 2015) (XLSX, 322 KB)
  
• Aggregated market data for years 1995 to 2014 (as at year-end 2014) (XLSX, 108 KB)
  
• Aggregated market data for years 1994 to 2013 (as of 2014 Q1) (XLSX, 108 KB)
  
• Replication of HSE mesothelioma TSCE model - Presented at GIRO 2011 (XLSX, 4 MB)
  
• Models used in 2009 Paper for market estimates (ZIP, 9 MB)
  
• Models used in 2004 Paper for market estimates (ZIP, 1.5 MB)

About

Chair: Andy Whiting
Established: 2010

This working party provides a forum for GI actuaries to discuss local and international GI issues impacting members in the region, as well as the opportunity to further research in specific regional issues.

There is an incredible amount of change in the international arena that will serve to keep GI actuaries around the world busy.

The effect of changes brought by the rapid development of emerging insurance markets or data analytics for example, are felt locally in our day-to-day work, but in many cases the ‘actuarial issue’ is commonly shared across international borders.

In recognition of the common issues impacting GI actuaries across borders, the IFoA has launched a GI international working party in the Asia region.

About

Chair: Sie Liang Lau and Yuan Tian
Established: 2016

The working party will investigate the transformative potential of blockchain technology in the insurance industry and the role that actuaries can play in that regard. This will include the evolving impact of these technological advancements on actuaries' roles within the rapidly expanding field of Decentralized Finance (DeFi).

By comparing these emerging responsibilities with traditional actuarial roles, the group aims to offer strategic recommendations that position actuaries at the forefront of this dynamic sector. Our focus will be on equipping actuaries with the insights and tools necessary to lead and innovate in the realm of DeFi, ensuring that the profession remains adaptable and forward-thinking in a rapidly changing financial landscape.

About

Chair: Aly Soliman
Established: 2024

About

Chair: Lawrence Habahbeh
Established: 2022

Best practice in assessing and responding to claims’ inflation during times of inflationary turbulence – either in the general economy or in a single line of business.

The anticipated output is a detailed research paper, with numerous worked ‘examples’ with 2+ presentations/seminars along the way.

About

Chair: Cian Creedon
Established: 2023

The aim of the working party is to support reserving actuaries in the following ways:

• promoting research relating to reserving for climate change
• providing a framework within which reserving actuaries can discharge their professional responsibilities in respect of climate change and participate meaningfully in conversations on this topic
• engaging and informing those who wish to acquire an understanding of how climate change affects reserving.

About

Chair: Alex Marcuson
Established: 2022

This working party functions as a source of knowledge and expertise within the UK actuarial profession on matters relating to flood, with a particular focus on the UK.

Key objectives

Its key objectives are to:

• provide insight on potential issues and challenges facing the UK insurance market in relation to the ongoing availability of affordable home and commercial property insurance in the context of flood and other secondary weather perils, in particular relating to future climate and regulatory change
• support and enable wider understanding amongst the industry, government, and the public of key issues relating to the ongoing availability of affordable home and commercial property insurance in the UK, to help influence related activity, key decisions, and developments
• monitor and report on UK market developments in relation to the availability and affordability of flood insurance
• develop thinking and potential solutions (in conjunction with other relevant organisations and groups) to help support the above objectives (including resilience and planning), drawing on experience, research, and activity, in the UK and elsewhere around the world
• produce reference material for UK actuaries when considering flood and other secondary weather perils for use in pricing, reserving, and capital modelling
• present to GIRO and develop articles to share our insights, coordinating with other relevant working parties and industry groups where possible
• consider alternatives to risk reflective pricing, including through review of other solutions around the world
• remain vigilant of potential market changes that impact other weather perils leading to similar issues faced to flood

About

Chair: Laura Evans
Established: 2014

Objectives

To identify the practical use cases for new technology in general insurance, and the opportunities for actuarial involvement in developing and implementing them. To include consideration of:

• AI and Machine Learning
• Robotic Process Automation
• Blockchain
• Internet of Things

Proposed outputs

• Report describing the concepts, detailing the use cases identified, including some practical worked examples.
• Presentation of findings at GIRO or other appropriate forum.

About

Chair: Edward Plowman
Established: 2019

As modelling techniques and research evolves, liability exposure management is evolving at a fast pace and we as an industry need to be able to understand and develop best practices to monitor and manage accumulation risk and dependencies.

There is also a need to consider how best to represent within carrier’s capital models.

About

Chair: Ramiz Mohamed
Established 2023

The General Insurance Machine Learning in Reserving Working Party (MLR WP) is a group of over 70 volunteers, bringing together a range of data scientists, actuaries and academics from around the globe.

When we started out in 2019, our premise was to find out why, whilst machine learning techniques are widespread in pricing, they are not being adopted ‘on the ground’ in reserving (certainly in the UK). Since then we have been working to help GI reserving actuaries develop data science skills, and are looking at ways that machine learning can be incorporated into reserving practice.

Workstreams

We have a number of different workstreams:

• Foundations – where do I start/how do I learn machine learning?
• Literature Review – we have reviewed over 60 papers and have highlighted a few of the best.
• Research – we are conducting a variety of research projects. We always aim to share the code so you can try it for yourself.
• Practical considerations – how to interpret ML models/explainability, how to deal with the issues reserving teams come across.
• Data – what data is available to develop ML techniques on?
• Survey – why has the uptake of machine learning in reserving been slow and what are UK and Canadian companies doing in-house (from 2020)?

For the most up-to-date information, our blogs, and more detail on the workstreams, please see our or join the conversation on our .

Contribute as a volunteer

We are open to new volunteers who have the time and enthusiasm to make a contribution. You don't have to be a member of the IFoA to join. If you would like to help us further the research and would like to collaborate with like-minded people, please see the for how to apply.

´¡²ú´Ç³Ü³ÙÌý

Chair: Sarah MacDonnell
Established: 2019

This working party will be a source of knowledge and expertise within the actuarial profession on insurance from a public interest perspective relating to Ogden rate, periodical payment orders, third party, and other motor-related actuarial work.

It will lead on the General Insurance Board and IFoA response to the increasing interest in regulatory and consumer issues in motor insurance.

It will liaise with related working parties, including electric vehicles, Asia international, and machine learning in reserving.

About

Chair: TBC
Established: 2025

This working party examines ways of better detecting (‘sensing’) and responding to change.

It was agreed that waiting for changes in the triangles before taking action is too slow and so the Better Sensing and Responding to Change Working Party was established in order to examine ways of better detecting (‘sensing’) and react to change. The working party reports into the General Insurance Reserving Oversight Committee (GI ROC) and continues to work towards the following objectives:

• To pre-empt changes in the triangles
• To examine how information can be used more holistically
• To better see what’s changing and to develop the best responses to those changes
• To educate individuals and businesses to apply this approach and so ensure they are better prepared.

About

Chair: Chris Smerald
Established: 2015

The Solvency II Practical Review Working Party seeks to evaluate the practical implications of Solvency II one year post-implementation and develop improvements for the PRA to consider in respect of this regulation.

Solvency II was implemented at the start of 2016. Already, however, limitations around the application of key aspects have started coming to light. This working party has been established to conduct a practical review of the regulation in order to better understand these limitations and their implications. Through the process of review, the working party aims to develop a list of possible improvements for the PRA to consider.

The working party will specifically focus on:

• technical Provision calculation and Balance Sheet
• standard Formulae application
• reinsurance application under the different models

On 17 November 2022, the government announced its final proposals, and the reformed Solvency II regime will be known as ‘Solvency UK’.

The renewed working party scope is to gain clarity on the changes and possible market impact of moving from Solvency II to ‘Solvency UK’ on the non-life sector.

About

Chair: Amrita Pattni
Co-Chairs: Ronnie Bedi – Capital stream leader, and Susan Yang – Technical Provisions stream leader
Established: 2016

The Third Party Working Party investigates emerging claim trends in third party motor insurance.

Objectives

Analyse trends in average cost, frequency, burning cost, and heads of damage for:

• third party property damage (TPD) claims
• capped (<£100,000 in 2010 money terms) third party bodily injury (TPI) claims, and
• excess (>£100,000 claims in 2010 money terms) TPI claims, and
• geographical analysis by major postal towns/cities for the key TPI/TPD metric
• trends in average cost, frequency, and burning cost associated with motor own damage claims
• work in conjunction with the Third Party Consultation and Communication and PPO Working Party to ensure that key messages of interest to the industry, consumers, the press, or government bodies are appropriately aired
• ​collect additional data from within the market or from other sources as the working party sees fit
• maintain appropriate standards with respect to competition law – in particular, no individual company actuary will see any data other than aggregate market data and there will be no discussion around pricing related matter
• all data processing will be hosted by Willis Towers Watson

About

Co-Chairs: Jacqueline Draper, Robert Treen
Established: 2009

This working party explores the governance and design of existing processes within reserving, ensuring that principles-based guidance (small ‘g’) is given.

The objectives of Towards the Optimal Reserving Process Working Party are to:

• investigate common practice within the reserving process and disseminate such information as required, ensuring practitioners are aware of such practices
• describe common issues relating to the reserving process and provide ideas around how to address these within the 'typical' reserving process
• consider emerging trends in reserving process requirements and identify potential ways to address these
• assist in making new reserving methods accessible to the wider Profession by providing practical steps to integrate them within existing reserving processes

About

Chair: William Diffey
Established: 2012